I've already done a couple of election post-mortems. Here are a set of quick thoughts:
1. California could be the future
In the seventies, California began the modern anti-tax movement with the passage of Proposition 13, a proposition that made it incredibly difficult to raise taxes–only a referenda or a supermajority of state legislators can pass taxes. As a result of the proposition California's educational system (particularly its post-secondary system) went from being one of the best in the country to one of the worst, it has increasingly spent more and more of its revenues incarcerating citizens rather than educating them.
In this election California elected a supermajority of democratic legislators. And passed at least one referendum increasing taxes. For the first time in a generation the anti-tax forces lost, decisively. This signals a growing desire to increase taxes for the purpose of rebuilding infrastructure and transforming our broken educational system.
I mentioned the incarceration issue. One of the few government responsibilities Californians actually supported was incarceration. And a LOT of it–the draconian three strikes legislation passed in the nineties sent thousands of felons to jail for life for minor (third) infractions. This deserves a much longer post of its own, but in the 2012 election, California rolled back the three strikes legislation. It's still there, but henceforth that third strike has to be a serious infraction–before, individuals were sent to jail for life for a third strike of stealing a pizza. Michelle Alexander argued that the only way to combat the prison industrial complex was through a mass movement. Maybe another way is possible.
2. Where does the Tea Party go from here?
The only way the Republican Party can be competitive at the presidential level going forward is by taking America's demographic shift seriously. And this means not only seriously rethinking their strategy of only going after white voters symbolically, this should also mean rethinking their policy approach. Where does this leave the base? I'd pay increasing attention to the white heartland vote. If they aren't able to deal with their political anxiety at the polls, they'll do so in another way.
3. The two unmentioned words in the 2012 campaign.
Climate change. For the first time since 1988 no presidential debate dealt with climate change, even as we see its effects. Just five years ago we were arguing that something like Katrina could only happen in a black city and to a black population. The Sandy/Noreaster combo has hit NYC hard. Thousands upon thousands are without power and are literally stranded. If there was one issue that could plausibly bring together everyone regardless of their background, it's this issue. I'm surprised no one's jumped on it. Surprisingly enough we talked about race and racism more than we talked about climate change.
This signals a growing desire to increase taxes for the purpose of rebuilding infrastructure and transforming our broken educational system. — Spence
What makes you think that if these taxes lead to increased revenues they would be used for infrastructure and education. The state has a $16 billion deficit.
the deficit shouldn’t matter. the government is now the only institution able or willing to provide capital AND has set the interest rate is close to zero. the president may very well make the deficit the priority. but he doesn’t have to do so.
Lester Spence :: Associate Professor, Political Science, Johns Hopkins University :: https://lesterspence.com :: protocol.by/lks
Clearly you are not saying that the “fiscal cliff” and “sequestration” don’t matter.
No and yes. What I’m really saying is that the deficit shouldn’t matter. But if the deal offered is poor, then I am also saying that the fiscal cliff doesn’t matter.
Here comes the Hispanic electorate.
Hispanics to Obama: We helped you, now you help us. Hispanics voted for Obama over Mitt Romney by a
resounding 71 percent to 27 percent and may have put him over the top in several key swing states. The total number of potential Hispanic voters this year reached a record 23.7 million – up about 80 percent since 2000 – and Hispanics now compose about 10 percent of the total electorate, according to the Pew Hispanic Center. –NBC
The Hispanics are in an ideal position to reap the benefits for their political support. They may not get everything they want, jobs e.g., but I think immigration reform/amnesty is a done deal for two reasons: (1) the Democrats cannot risk taking Hispanic support for granted [Bush received 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004] (2) the Republican Party is imploding. Amnesty may exacerbate that implosion, but the less conservative elements of
the Republicans will push for amnesty to try to capture a larger percentage of the Hispanic vote.
What impact will this have on the Afrikan American body politic? Current estimates show the Hispanic population at about 50 million with 35 percent of that population being under 18 (67 percent of Hispanic children live with 2 parents). There are 12 million “illegal aliens” per the Feds. Some estimates claim that the real number is over 20 million.
“Hispanic birth rates climbed 27 percent from 1990 through 2010, according to a Bloomberg analysis of yesterday’s Census Bureau estimates. That compares with a 7.5 percent decline in the birth rate of the overall
population and an 8.3 percent decline for blacks. Compared with 2000, the Hispanic birth rate increased 14 percent, while both the U.S. population and black birth rates declined 2 percent.” – Bloomberg (12/7/2010)
Throw amnesty into the mix and all of this adds up to a rapidly expanding Hispanic electorate.
2008 presidential vote (final exit polls)
White: 75 percent/98.598 million
Black: 12.2 percent/16.312 million
Hispanic: 8.4 percent/11.043 million
Others: 4.5 percent/5.916 milliom
2012 presidential vote (estimate)
White: 72 percent/91.917 million (-6.681 million) In a year when the Republican base was supposed to be energized their pundits are still trying to figure out why Romney received less votes than the vacuous John McCain.
Black: 13 percent/16.596 million (+294,622)
Hispanic: 10 percent/12.766 million (+1.723 million)
Others: 5 percent/6.383 million (+467,257)
How will the Afrikan American body politic deal with these shifting dynamics.
The Latino electorate is a bit more diverse than the news would have you believe. And note that to an extent Latino is STILL an ethnicity rather than a race.
With that said I believe we aren’t looking at the right place. We shouldn’t be looking to DC. Rather we should be looking at the state and local levels. Referenda can be used for progressive ends. And as shown by Occupy Wall Street, cities are still visible enough entities that the proper actions can change local policy and be felt nationally. A well timed set of church-led foreclosure defenses, for example, could work wonders.