The 2010 census findings are beginning to trickle out. Blacks are leaving the North, but let’s not get it twisted, what they’re really doing is leaving the Rustbelt…and New York City. Blacks migrated to the north en masse in the Great Migration to escape terrorism and to find solid working class jobs, with benefits and (later on) union protection. They are migrating back to the South because New York City and Chicago are too expensive, and because the jobs in Chicago, Detroit, and elsewhere are gone. There are more blacks in the south than in any period since 1960. Quick thoughts on political consequences:
- The South was NEVER solidly for one political party. NEVER. Black disfranchisement made it appear that way, but this was far from the case. Expect southern Republican dominance to gradually dissolve. There is no way the GOP can keep the racist white vote AND get the growing black vote. The 50 + .01% strategy will only work so long.
- On the other hand, expect blacks to lose mayoralties in Atlanta and other predominantly black cities. Blacks are not only moving to the South, they are moving to the SUBURBS. DC is about to become a majority white city. Expect Atlanta to do so as well.
- Expect class issues in black communities to flare up politically. Black suburbs are segregated by class, giving black middle and upper class residents the ability to cordon themselves off from their poorer counterparts. Expect more black politicians to speak to black middle class interests under the cover of black interests.
- Along these lines expect black politics to become more conservative. The south is a bastion of anti-union and anti-government sentiment. Unless something is done to actively counter this move expect black politics to become much more conservative.
- Finally, given that blacks even as they become conservative will reject the GOP because of their racism, expect the DNC to become even more conservative than they already are.
Thoughts?
Many U.S. Blacks Moving to South, Reversing Trend – NYTimes.com.
My experience living in Atlanta corresponds to your predictions with a weird twist, that weirdness being Cynthia McKinney who made a great deal of noise when her congressional district changed from majority black jerrymander to a majority white jerrymander. That is, she made a great deal of noise until she won, and then she shutup about how racist it was.
It is absolutely true that the black middle class and upscale folks in Atlanta want no part of the working class and ‘The Element’ and nothing is quite so clubby as certain black yuppie enclaves like middle management at CocaCola. There is a much stronger sense of ‘who sent you’ in that regard. In other words, racial politics in Atlanta is NOT cosmopolitain and there is a strong sense of entitlement. This is something I noticed as a New Yorker right away. Atlanta is indeed open for black business, but you must be connected. It feels rather like the black fraternity system on campus. GDIs need to watch their step.
Atlanta likes its racial politics and feels quite comfortable discussing things openly. That doesn’t change the fact that there is still rigor by color all around the city. I can’t tell you how that may have changed for the better or worse since I lived there 14 years ago, but I can’t imagine that it has changed a great deal. The cultural geography of Atlanta will only change as fast as the school districts and major employers do.
It doesn’t take much to send Atlantans into their racial corners, and there’s not enough moola to incent people out of those corners when it comes to politics. Why would anybody bother to crossover from D to R? Where’s the new blood or new opportunity?
thanks for this. i like atlanta as a place to visit but haven’t cared much
for it because i thought the construction of its black mecca status didn’t
really allow for black working class politics. and given that much of the
black middle upper management group wasn’t actually FROM atlanta they
wouldn’t really have the desire or the interest to fight for “the element.”
the more i think about it, i think the 21st century isn’t the problem of the
color line as much as it is the problem of the element. the one chris rock
would do a drive by on.
do you personally claim new york or la? you note that your experiences in
atlanta were shaped by your status as a new yorker…as opposed to someone
who LIVED in new york…interesting.